delivering sustainable solutions |
Scenario planning - shaping the future
Overview
A practical course in scenario planning in which
participants will:
§
Anticipate
possible future scenarios
§
Explore
uncertainties and forces that are impacting on the future
§
Examine
possible future developments that could impact on individuals, organisations or
societies
§
Think
proactively and plan for the future
Organisations facing conditions such as the following can
benefit from scenario planning:
§
High
levels of risk, uncertainty and complexity
§
A
desire to influence events
§
Low
level of strategic thinking
§
Industry
has changed significantly
§
A
recognized need to anticipate change
§
Past
mistakes such as costly surprises
§
Few
new opportunities being developed
Learning outcomes
On completion of this
course participants should be able to:
§
Identify
future driving forces
§
Link
scenarios to business strategy
§
Enhance
your ability to manage change
§
Manage
risk proactively
§
Apply
principles of systems thinking
§
Reduce
the likelihood of surprises
§
Develop
robust strategies to deal with complexity and uncertainty
§
Improve
your decision making capability
§
Avoid
common pitfalls
Case Studies (selected from)
§
§
Scenarios
for the
§
National
City Bank - aligning IT & business
§
World
Economic Forum and the Confederation of Indian Industry: India@Risk
§
Agricultural
Science and Technology in
§
Strategy
Failure in
§
Driving
forces in health
§
Aerospace
business environment
§
Energy
industry scenarios
§
Gas
asset management
§
Water
utility uncertainty
Overview of content
Session One - Putting scenario planning into context
• Using scenario planning to develop corporate strategy
• The what and why of scenario planning
• Generative and adaptive scenarios - your level of control or
influence
• Range of applications
• Views of the world
• Exploration of high risk industries (public, private and
non-profit) - general and specific
Activity: Identify the key
external factors that impact your organisation
Session Two - Understanding the scenario development process
• Models and processes to shape the future
• Scenario planning steps
• Developing stories about the future
• Applying principles of Systems Thinking
Activity: Develop four different
possible futures
Session Three - Identifying the key drivers of change
• Recognising predetermined elements
• Separating knowns from critical uncertainties
• Examining risk and levels of uncertainty
• Developing checklists of drivers: political, economic, social,
technological, environmental, legal
• Ranking driving forces by uncertainty and importance
Activity: Rank driving forces
Session Four - Laying the foundations for scenarios
• Identifying driving forces
• Selecting key issues which are most relevant to the future
• Setting the scenario agenda
• Analysing and questioning assumptions
• Engaging with stakeholders
Activity: Select key issues &
analyse assumptions
Session Five - Building powerful scenarios
• Scoping – exploring boundaries and terms of reference
• Applying deductive,
inductive, normative and incremental methods
•
Asking the right questions
•
Designing scenarios using story templates
•
Dealing with change – culture & perceptions
Activity: Create a scenario
matrix
Session Six - Evaluating scenarios from a range of perspectives
• Developing criteria to evaluate scenarios
• Identifying critical success factors
• Applying principles of reflection
• Analysing implications from the perspective of key external
& internal stakeholders
Activity: Test your scenarios for
consistency, plausibility and other key criteria
• Day one wrap-up
DAY TWO
Session One - Managing risk – responding to uncertainty
• Identifying and evaluating risks including critical
uncertainties
• Exploring pandemic scenarios
• Capitalising on opportunities
• Responding to risks
• Activity: Undertake a risk
analysis
Session Two - Bridging from scenarios to strategies
•
Exploring the implications of diverse scenarios
•
Linking short-term action plans and long term strategies
•
Reading early-warning signs
•
Prioritising external and internal initiatives
•
Building sustainable strategies – closing the implementation gap
Activity: Identify early warning signs
Session Three - Developing mechanisms to deal with
disruptive changes
•
Speculating on future crises
•
Using wind tunnels to test the future
•
Increasing managers capability through shared mental models
•
Exploring emerging issues that will change the shape of our world
• Ensuring
that we are prepared to meet future challenges
•
Shaping the wider policy agenda
Activity: Managing perceptions
and potential reactions
Session Four - Managing successful scenario planning projects - process and content
• Producing the project plan – roles, KPI’s, deliverables,
timing, resources etc
•
Planning the logistics – invitations, venue, timing
• Developing the stakeholder management plan
• Gathering up relevant information
• Developing questionnaires and agendas
• Engaging with stakeholders through interviews, workshops etc
Activity: Develop an outline
scenario planning project plan
Session Five - Applying further tools and techniques
• Systems thinking
• Creative thinking principle & tools
• Wide Band Delpi
• Strategic alliances
• Other approaches to scenario development
Activity: Apply advanced tools to
enhance your scenario
Session
Six - Plenary session and wrap-up – Key factors for successful scenario
planning
•
Developing proactive approaches
•
Consolidating insights on building and using scenarios
•
Avoiding scenario planning traps
•
Building leaders at all levels
Activity: Develop your action plan
• Summary and close
Who should attend?
Senior managers, managers, program
managers, strategic planners, account managers
Course Duration
Typically two days.
Can be delivered in one day format
This page last updated 22 October 2007
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